But all of this is not an immediate impact. And it
also depends on the other provision, which will kick
in sooner, where people can get coverage paying rates much
lower than COBRA rates. When a business takes someone
on they are not necessarily incurring added expenses
because someone is going from no coverage to coverage.
GCX: Ken, let’s discuss the state of the Midwest’s
economy.
Goldstein: The Midwest was the weakest economic
region of the country before the recession. What we
are looking at now for the Midwest is a slow recovery,
certainly in terms of jobs and goods production, which
is more important to the Midwest than it is to other
parts of country.
When we look at core services, excluding education
and health, we are still looking at jobs that are 1 percent
lower today than a year ago, and which are probably not
going to recover faster than perhaps a 1 percent rate of
growth in service jobs over the next year to two years.
GCX: Where are the strengths and weaknesses found
in this region?
Goldstein: One of the things we have discussed in
these columns before is not just the differences in variations in the country’s various regions, but the variations
within regions.
Northern Illinois is the strongest part of the Midwest.
In some sense, Chicago has turned itself into a service
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from some of the ravages that other Midwest cities have
faced; not that they escaped the downturn.
There is no question Michigan is the weakest. Indiana
is in between the two. And in Ohio, northern Ohio is not
in quite as good of shape as southern Ohio.
Looking to the longer term, clearly not in 2010 or
2011, green energy and all of those windmills in the
upper plains states will make a difference. As will some of
the services in information, communications and technology area, which is what kept Chicago from facing the fate
of Detroit. This [energy and ICT] may well be where the
future lies for Detroit, especially with respect to energy.
But the road from here to there, and those folks know
better than I, will be very long and difficult. ;
Interview conducted by Rachel Duran.
Ken Goldstein is an economist with The Conference Board,
and can be reached by e-mailing ken.goldstein@conference-board.org. For more than 90 years, The Conference Board
has created and disseminated knowledge about management
and the marketplace to help business strengthen their
performance and better serve society. The organization
operates as a global independent membership organization
working in the public interest. Among its services, the
organization publishes information and analysis, makes
economics-based forecasts and assesses trends. To learn
more, visit www.conference-board.org.
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